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Pascal's Wager is well-known to many atheists. On the internet,
it is probably the most common argument heard from Christians, and the
regulars of newsgroups such as alt.atheism
feel cheated if a week goes by without someone bringing it up (this
rarely happens), only to be shot down in flames (this always happens).
It is also one of the most common arguments I receive in my email box,
so this article was written specifically to deal with it.
Pascal's Wager is quite simple, and superficially appears to
be a strong and compelling argument for theism. However, a little close
scrutiny soon reveals the flawed logic and reasoning behind it, which
actually makes it one of the weakest arguments a theist could come up
with.
The Wager
Pascal's Wager can be presented in many different forms, usually something
like this:
"If you believe, and God exists, you gain everything. If you disbelieve, and God exists,
you lose everything."
Alternatively :
"It makes more sense to believe in God than to not believe. If you believe, and God exists,
you will be rewarded in the afterlife. If you do not believe, and He exists, you will be punished
for your disbelief. If He does not exist, you have lost nothing either way. "
It amounts to hedging your bets. The consequences upon your death
are shown here:
| God exists | God does not exist |
| I believe | Go To Heaven | Nothing |
| I do not believe | Burn In Hell! | Nothing |
The worst case for the theist is no afterlife, the worst case
for the atheist is an eternity in Hell. You can see why this appears
to be a potentially convincing argument - it is sensible to choose the
least-worst case.
The flaws
The most obvious problems with Pascal's Wager are:
- How do you know which God to believe in? There are plenty
to choose from, and if you pick the wrong one, you could be in big
trouble (e.g. what if you choose Jesus, but get to heaven only to
come face-to-trunk with Ganesh?). This is known as the "Avoiding
the wrong Hell problem". If a dozen people of different religions
came to you with Pascal's Wager, how could you possibly choose between
them? After all, many religions are quite specific that they
are the One True Religion, and not any others. Jesus Christ said "I
am the way, the truth and the light. None shall come to the
Father except through me." [emphasis added] and no doubt
most other religions make similar claims. If a Christian considers
the Wager as strong support for his faith, surely he must accept that
it is equally valid for all other religions when presented to himself?
- God is not stupid. Won't He know that you're just trying
to get a free ride into Heaven? How can you sincerely believe in a
God simply out of convenience?
- If there is no God, you have still lost something. You have
wasted a good portion of your life performing the various devotional
rituals, attending Churches, praying, reading scripture and discussing
your deity with His other followers. Not to mention giving your hard-earned
money to the church, wasting your intelligence on theological endeavours
and boring the hell out of people who really don't want to hear your
Good News.
- Can you get away with just sort of generally believing in
a Supreme Being, without specifically believing in one particular
Deity? Probably not - God will still know what you're up to. Also,
many Gods are quite particular about how they should be worshipped.
Many born-again Christians will tell you that the only way
to Heaven is through accepting Jesus Christ as your personal saviour
- nothing more and nothing less. General-Deity-Belief and being nice
simply won't do. Many people believe that all the different religions
are merely alternative routes to the same destination. Nice and tolerant
(if a little warm'n'fuzzy) though this may be, there is no valid reason
to accept this stance over the fire-and-brimstone fundamentalist position
: if the fundies are right, then the un-Saved liberal theists are
in just as much trouble as the nonbelievers.
- Few, if any, atheists disbelieve in deities out of choice.
It's not as if we know the god is really there, but somehow
refuse to believe in it (for example, see if you can choose to truly
believe that Australia does not exist). Most atheists disbelieve simply
because they know of no compelling evidence to suggest that any sort
of god exists. If you want an atheist to believe, show her some good
evidence, don't just say it's in her best interests to believe even
if there is no god. A person cannot choose to sincerely believe in
something, just because it is pragmatic to do so. Sure, you could
say all the right prayers and attend church regularly, but that is
not the same thing as actually believing, and any God worth
his salt would obviously see straight through that.
- It is quite insulting. It amounts to a thinly veiled threat,
little better than saying "Believe in my God or He'll send you
to Hell" (in fact, this is often the form it is presented in).
Also, the theist making this threat assumes that the atheist believes
there is a Hell or a God to send her there
in the first place. If you don't believe in Hell anyway, it's not
a scary thing to be threatened with - a bit like saying "If you
don't start believing in unicorns, one will trample you to death while
you're sleeping." Who would be worried by that?
- It is often self-refuting, depending on the person's description
of God. If you believe that God will forgive anyone for anything,
or judge people purely on how they lived their life and not what they
believed, or that everyone gets to Heaven regardless (unless maybe
they were genocidal cannibal serial killers), then the Wager is meaningless.
You might as well say "Believe in God, or you'll... erm... go
to Heaven anyway." In such a case, it doesn't make a scrap of
difference whether the person believes or not.
Pascal's Wager is hopelessly flawed. It sounds good at first,
but poke it with the spike of reason and it quickly deflates, letting
out all the hot air.
An alternative - The Atheist's Wager
This seems to be much more reasonable, both for atheists and theists :
"It is better to live your life as if there are no Gods, and try to make the world a better
place for your being in it. If there is no God, you have lost nothing and will be remembered
fondly by those you left behind. If there is a benevolent God, He will judge you on your
merits and not just on whether or not you believed in Him."
(And if God is not benevolent, he's gonna git ya whatever you do!)
This can be shown as:
| God exists | God does not exist |
| I believe | Go To Heaven because
you believed |
Wasted life praying etc. |
| I do not believe | Go To Heaven because
you're a good person | Made the world a better place |
Has anyone got the number for Pascal's Pager? :)
© Adrian Barnett, 1998, 1999, 2000. Last updated 26th Feb, 2000 |
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